Michael Faulkner, Director
499 NW 5th Ave.  Okeechobee, FL  34972
Phone: (863) 763-3212     Fax: (863) 763-1569
Please call for e-mail contact information.

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Storm Information



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Tropical Storm Fay continues to meander along the East Central Florida coast, with its center of circulation just offshore of Volusia County, about 45 miles east of Daytona Beach as of 8 PM EDT Wednesday.  Fay has strengthened slightly this evening as its center is now almost completely over water.  Maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph.  Based on the official forecast track, there is only a small window of opportunity for Fay to strengthen further given its close proximity to land.  

A ridge of high pressure centered over the northeastern U.S. will continue to build southward, causing Fay to gradually begin moving toward the north-northwest tonight, followed by a more west-northwesterly course on Thursday.  On this track, Fay will move slowly across Northeast Florida on Thursday and into the Big Bend as a weaker system on Friday.  As Fay moves ashore (for the third time) strong tropical storm force winds will impact the coastal areas of northeastern Florida.  Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect from Fort Pierce northward along the eastern peninsula coast, and Inland Tropical Storm Wind warnings continue for interior areas of Central and Northeast Florida.  

Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are expected again tonight over the coastal counties of Central Florida as rain bands from Fay continue to rotate around its center of circulation.  Flood watches remain in effect for most of East Central Florida and Northeast Florida, and a new Flood Watch has just been issued for the Florida Big Bend due to expected heavy rainfall from Fay.  Flash Flood Warnings continue for Brevard County until early Thursday morning. 

The sustained onshore wind flow across coastal northeastern Florida will cause tides to run about 1-3 feet above normal. High surf, beach erosion, and dangerous rip currents are likely. 

Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands, or about 2500 miles east-southeast of Miami, continues moving toward the west at about 10-15 mph.  Any development of this system will be slow to occur.

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At 9 PM Tuesday, the eye of Tropical Storm Fay was still located in eastern Okeechobee county, or about 45 miles to the south-southwest of Melbourne.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 60 mph and Fay has been crawling eastward around 5 mph during the past few hours.  Fay is a unique tropical cyclone that strengthened after landfall today, and speculation is that the flat and swampy terrain of southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region supplied this cyclone with the necessary energy to intensify.  Fay should continue to weaken over land this evening before potentially emerging off the coastal waters of east central Florida during the overnight hours. 

The weather pattern across the eastern United States is forecast to drastically change during the next few days.  The persistent upper level trough of low pressure that turned Fay northward from Cuba is departing the eastern seaboard, and a ridge of high pressure will build over the mid-Atlantic states in its place.  Fay may enough momentum to reach the coastal waters of east central Florida later tonight before this building ridge aloft blocks the "escape" route out to sea.  If Fay emerges over the coastal waters, it could once again slowly strengthen towards Category 1 hurricane status on Wednesday.  Strengthening beyond the official forecast intensity is possible if Fay reaches the Gulf Stream waters. 

Nearly all of the computer model guidance forecasts Fay to turn back towards Florida's east central or northeast coast beginning on Wednesday evening.  There is disagreement as to whether Fay will take a hard left turn westward or a gradual northwestward turn during the next 36 hours.  The models agree that Fay will continue to move slowly during the next 5 days and this will raise the flood potential, particularly for northeast and east central Florida where upwards of 10 inches of rain are possible.  This flood potential could shift westward towards Florida's Big Bend and panhandle later this week depending on where Fay makes the anticipated left turn.  Since there are a number of possibilities for Fay's movement and intensity, everyone in north Florida and the panhandle should continue to monitor future forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Significant beach erosion is possible in northeast Florida as onshore winds strengthen ahead of Fay's potential impact.  

A hurricane watch has been posted for the northeast Florida coast from Flagler Beach northward to the Altamaha Sound, GA.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Lake Okeechobee and along the Atlantic coast from Flagler Beach southward to Jupiter.  A tornado watch continues through 1 AM for portions of  the Treasure coast, east central and northeast Florida.  Flood watches cover a majority of the Florida peninsula through Wednesday morning.   

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has not become any better organized today.  This system is located more than 2950 miles to the east-southeast of Miami and is moving slowly westward around 10 mph.  Some slow development is possible later this week in the central Atlantic Ocean.  This wave could approach the Lesser Antilles or Puerto Rico this weekend.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

340 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ053-058-192100- OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA- 340 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 ...THE EYEWALL FEATURE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

 AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY JUST WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST OKEECHOBEE COUNTY EAST OF BRIGHTON. THE EYEWALL OF FAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. WINDS WITHIN THE EYEWALL MAY GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE OR NEAR 75 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LASTING NEARLY AN HOUR AS THE EYEWALL FEATURE MOVES NORTH. RESIDENTS IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN OKEECHOBEE AND BASINGER SHOULD PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH 430 PM. REMAIN INDOORS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR RESIDENCE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE EYEWALL FEATURE WILL REACH NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE AND FORT DRUM BY 5 PM. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE...DRIVING OR OTHERWISE...WHEN THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE ABRUPTLY YOU MAY BE IN THE EYE. RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO GO OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EYE APPROACHES. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING CONTINUE FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

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Tropical Storm FAY Situation Page...

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Radar Page - Our original Regular Updated LIVE Radar Map Links...

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TROPICAL STORM FAY KEEPING A TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INLAND FL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. 

AREAS AFFECTED.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN ALL OF EAST CNTL FL. 

 WATCHES/WARNINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CNTL FL.

 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CNTL FL.AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

 A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL EAST CNTL FL COUNTIES.

 A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM.

 A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN RIVER.BREVARD.

VOLUSIA.OSCEOLA.ORANGE.& SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT ON WEDNESDA.

 STORM INFORMATION.

AT 4 PM EDT.THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH.LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT

15 MILES WEST OF THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE ON THE WEST RIM OF THE LAKE. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

 FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-202030-

/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA- NORTHERN BREVARD-

425 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TRACK THROUGH EAST CNTL FL NEAR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

 NEW INFORMATION.

THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGH FOR INDIAN RIVER & BREVARD COUNTIES.WITH TORNADO WARNINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS. 

AREAS AFFECTED.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES.MARTIN.SAINT LUCIE.INDIAN RIVER.BREVARD.& VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST CENTER TRACK OF FAY.& TO ITS RIGHT.SHOULD STAY INDOORS! IT IS NOT WISE TO BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.ESPECIALLY WITHIN OKEECHOBEE & OSCEOLA COUNTIES..AS WELL AS BREVARD & INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THEIR SAFE ROOM WITHIN THEIR HOME OR SHELTER IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA.OR IF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE REALIZED. 

AGAIN.UNTIL FAY PASSES.STAY INDOORS & AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TREAT THE PASSING OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY AS YOU WOULD A TORNADO.

 WINDS.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH ARE STILL BEING INDICATED ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY. THE AIRPORT OKEECHOBEE AIRPORT WAS RECENTLY GUSTING TO 55 MPH. 

FAY CONTINUES TO REMAIN ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING OVER LAND. THE EYEWALL FEATURE.HAVING VERY HEAVY SQUALLS.WAS MOVING GENERALLY NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS IS A FEATURE OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND TOWARD SO. OSCEOLA COUNTY ARRIVING THERE BY 5 TO 6 PM.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITHIN A DOMINATE RAINBAND WHERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THIS BAND WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NO. THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY INTO ORANGE & EVENTUALLY SEMINOLE COUNTY.

 INLAND FLOODING.

RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY WITHIN A DOMINANT RAINBAND THROUGH BREVARD & OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF TORRENTIAL FLOODING RAIN WHERE AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED IN SPOTS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE IT MOVES OVER.AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD ORANGE COUNTY & NO. BREAVRD COUNTY. 

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES.WITH FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY ISSUED FOR BREVARD.INDIAN RIVER.MARTIN.& SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. HEAVIER TOTALS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER SWATH.& TO THE RIGHT.TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAISE TOTALS IN OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM.

 SOME RAIN TOTALS SO FAR:

 OKEECHOBEE.6.88 INCHES

FORT PIERCE.6.58 INCHES

VERO BEACH.5.05 INCHES

MELBOURNE.3.50 INCHES

JUNO BEACH.5.48 INCHES

JUPITER.7.48 INCHES

STUART.9.6O INCHES

PORT SAINT LUCIE.8.20 INCHES

SEBASTIAN.2.80 INCHES

PALM BAY.3.16 INCHES. 

ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SOME OF THE LISTED PLACES ARE STILL RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH IMPACT FROM INLAND FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOODING.AMONG SCATTERED LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

FLOODING MAY BE ACCENTUATED IN LOW LYING SPOTS & NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.

 TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA & INDINA RIVER COUNTIES.& REMAINING COUNTIES NORTHWARD.XCEPT LAKE COUNTY.

 AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA THROUGH EAST CNTL FL. THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS BREVARD & VOLUSIA COUNTIES. AS WELL AS EASTERN SECTIONS OF OSCEOLA & ORANGE COUNTIES. MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE METRO ORLANDO & SANFORD AREAS.

 THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACE TOWARD THE NW AT 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

 THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AREAWIDE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FAY APPROACHES THE EAST COAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

 NEXT UPDATE.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MELBOURNE AROUND 7 PM EDT. OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

 FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. SEE THE MELBOURNE NATL WEATHER SVC WEB SITE AT WEATHER. GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CNTL FL.

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-

425 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. 

NEW INFORMATION.

SINCE FAY HAS REMED FAIRLY ORGANIZED OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A DEVELOPING CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.. ESPECIALLY NO. OF CAPE CANAVERAL. 

AREAS AFFECTED.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS. FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH & OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

 LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF EAST CNTL FL TONIGHT. EAST TO SE WINDS OF 35 TO

45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 8 TO 11 FEET & THIS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION. TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS RAINBANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.

 LOCAL MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH IMPACT. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO INTENSE WINDS & VERY HIGH COMBINED SEAS. BAY & INLAND WATERS MAY BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

 AT BEAUFORT SCALE 8.HIGH WAVES OF GREATER LENGTH FORM. AT BEAUFORT SCALE 9.VERY HIGH WAVES BUILD WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING AFFECTED BY BLOWING FOAM & SPRAY. SMALL SHIPS MAY BE LOST TO VIEW BEHIND WAVES.

 TORNADOES.

AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA THROUGH INLAND EAST CNTL FL.THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BREVARD & VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO ORMOND BEACH.

 THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACE TOWARD THE NW AT 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

 THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AREAWIDE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FAY APPROACHES THE EAST COAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF PORT CANAVERAL. 

NEXT UPDATE.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MELBOURNE AROUND 7 PM EDT. OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. SEE THE MELBOURNE NATL WEATHER SVC WEB SITE AT WEATHER. GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CNTL FL.

 INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-

SOUTHERN LAKE-

425 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TRACK THROUGH EAST CNTL FL NEAR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

 NEW INFORMATION.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD NO. THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TOWARD OSCEOLA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.

 AREAS AFFECTED.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CNTL FL. OKEECHOBEE.

OSCEOLA. ORANGE. LAKE.SEMINOLE & WESTERN VOLUSIA.

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST CENTER TRACK OF FAY.& TO ITS RIGHT. SHOULD STAY INDOORS! IT IS NOT WISE TO BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITHIN OKEECHOBEE & OSCEOLA COUNTIES.. AS WELL AS BREVARD & INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THEIR SAFE ROOM WITHIN THEIR HOME OR SHELTER IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. OR IF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE REALIZED. 

AGAIN. UNTIL FAY PASSES. STAY INDOORS & AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TREAT THE PASSING OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY AS YOU WOULD A TORNADO.

 WINDS.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH ARE STILL BEING INDICATED ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY. THE AIRPORT OKEECHOBEE AIRPORT WAS RECENTLY GUSTING TO 55 MPH. 

FAY CONTINUES TO REMAIN ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING OVER LAND. THE EYEWALL FEATURE. HAVING VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. WAS MOVING GENERALLY NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS IS A FEATURE OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND TOWARD SO. OSCEOLA COUNTY ARRIVING THERE BY 5 TO 6 PM. 

WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITHIN A DOMINATE RAINBAND WHERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THIS BAND WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NO. THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY INTO ORANGE & EVENTUALLY SEMINOLE COUNTY.

 INLAND FLOODING.

RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY WITHIN A DOMINANT RAINBAND THROUGH BREVARD & OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF TORRENTIAL FLOODING RAIN WHERE AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES COULD BE REALIZED IN SPOTS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE IT MOVES OVER. AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD ORANGE COUNTY & NO. BREAVRD COUNTY.

 A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES. WITH FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY ISSUED FOR BREVARD. INDIAN RIVER. MARTIN.& SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. HEAVIER TOTALS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER SWATH.& TO THE RIGHT. TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAISE TOTALS IN OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM.

 SOME RAIN TOTALS SO FAR: 

OKEECHOBEE.6.88 INCHES

FORT PIERCE.6.58 INCHES

VERO BEACH.5.05 INCHES

MELBOURNE.3.50 INCHES

JUNO BEACH.5.48 INCHES

JUPITER.7.48 INCHES

STUART.9.6O INCHES

PORT SAINT LUCIE.8.20 INCHES

SEBASTIAN.2.80 INCHES

PALM BAY.3.16 INCHES. 

ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SOME OF THE LISTED PLACES ARE STILL RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN.

 PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH IMPACT FROM INLAND FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOODING.AMONG SCATTERED LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

FLOODING MAY BE ACCENTUATED IN LOW LYING SPOTS & NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.

 TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA & INDINA RIVER COUNTIES.& REMAINING COUNTIES NORTHWARD. EXCEPT LAKE COUNTY. 

AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA THROUGH EAST CNTL FL.THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS BREVARD & VOLUSIA COUNTIES.AS WELL AS EASTERN SECTIONS OF OSCEOLA & ORANGE COUNTIES.MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE METRO ORLANDO & SANFORD AREAS.

 THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACE TOWARD THE NW AT 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

 THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AREAWIDE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FAY APPROACHES THE EAST COAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

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STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY... AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR WEST OF BUCKHEAD RIDGE. THE EYEWALL OF FAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY HEAVY SQUALLS AS IT WAS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. A BAND OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF OKEECHOBEE THROUGH 4 PM. RESIDENTS IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SHOULD PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION A BRIEF TORNADO COULD FORM IN THIS EYEWALL. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO IN LAKEPORT IN EASTERN GLADES COUNTY. REMAIN INDOORS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR RESIDENCE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT FIND YOURSELF OUTSIDE...DRIVING OR OTHERWISE...WHEN THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUE FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. $$ PB

 

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HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
JUST SOUTH OF LAKEPORT. THE EYEWALL FEATURE WITH VERY HEAVY SQUALLS
WAS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF OKEECHOBEE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OF 70 TO 80 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH LASTING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS INTENSE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

RESIDENTS IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SHOULD PREPARE FOR THIS BAND OF
STRONG WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA!! BE PREPARED TO ACT TO
PROTECT YOURSELF!! TREAT THIS FEATURE AS YOU WOULD A TORNADIC STORM!!
REMAIN INDOORS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR RESIDENCE. KEEP AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
  MARTIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
  OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
  ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
 
* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

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Around 5 am EDT this Tuesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Fay made landfall near Cape Romano, FL, along the Collier County coastline.  

Fay strengthened overnight, but was unable to attain hurricane status before moving onshore early this morning with maximum winds near 60mph. As of 9am this morning, Fay was moving north-northeast and inland across Collier and Hendry County at around 9 mph. Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to continue a slow northward progress up the Florida Peninsula, bringing widespread rainfall and gusty winds to much of Central and South Florida today and into Northeast Florida by tonight.  

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have been reported across portions of Central and South Florida, with isolated locations receiving as much as 6 to 7 inches over the past 24 hours. Another 1-3 inches is expected today, with some locations, particularly across eastern sections of the Peninsula, receiving as much as 4-6 inches today. A Flood Watch continues for much of the Florida Peninsula, with the exception of West Central Florida, through Wednesday morning and a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Martin County. Flood Warnings will likely continue through the day, and the Flood Watch for Northeast Florida may have to be extended into Thursday or Friday as the bands of Fay continue to rotate onshore over the next few days.  

Tornadoes also continue to be a threat with this storm. Several tornadoes were reported overnight along the Florida Keys, Southeast Florida and along the Treasure Coast. Most reported damage has been minor, with only a few trees and power lines down. However, there was a report early this morning of extensive roof damage to an equine animal hospital in Palm Beach County. A Tornado Watch has been extended for much of the Central and South Florida Peninsula through this afternoon, and the threat for tornadoes will continue into Wednesday, especially along the Eats Coast.  

Tropical Storm Fay is exhibiting a somewhat rare event for landfalling cyclones. The central minimum pressure within the center of circulation continues to fall while moving inland and banding features around the center remain organized. Because of this, Fay may keep her tropical storm status for quite a while today. Still, Fay expected to gradually weaken as it crosses the Peninsula, probably becoming a tropical depression by time it moves off the East Florida Coast near Cape Canaveral or Daytona Beach overnight tonight. From there, Fay is forecast to linger, or even stall, off the Northeast Florida coast on Wednesday as steering currents become very weak. A ridge of high pressure, moving into the New England and Mid-Atlantic region, will help keep Fay on a more southern track. The clockwise rotation around high pressure will help steer Fay westward, and the National Hurricane Center predicts a third U.S. landfall near Jacksonville, Florida, on Thursday. This large and strong ridge of high pressure to the north will keep the remnants of Fay moving slowly west along the Florida-Georgia border over the weekend while dissipating before turning northward into the Tennessee Valley.  

Another possible concern to Florida is a low pressure disturbance over the eastern Atlantic. Shower and storm activity has gradually become better organized over the past 24 hours. This system is currently moving west-northwest around 15 mph. While slow development of this system is possible, it will begin to encounter stronger upper level winds and drier air as it moves into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. Still, some computer models are forecasting this system to develop as it nears the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

8 AM Tuesday: County remains under Tropical Storm Warning.  3.99 inches of rain recorded in Okeechobee.

Tuesday Rainfall estimates:

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5 AM Tuesday: County remains under Tropical Storm Warning.  1.75 inches of rain recorded in Okeechobee.

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11 PM Monday: This Tornado Watch replaces the earlier Tornado Watch which was issued earlier today for South Florida.

 Link to Storm Prediction Center:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

 

WW0840 Overview WOU Image

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At 8 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located about 105 miles to the south of Naples, FL.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, and Fay is now moving northward around 9 mph.  Fay made her first Florida landfall at Key West at approximately 3 PM EDT this afternoon with sustained winds near 60 mph.  Tropical storm wind gusts and tropical downpours will spread northward through the peninsula later tonight and on Tuesday.   

Thunderstorm activity has increased around Fay's circulation this evening and this cyclone may reach Category 1 hurricane strength before landfall along the southwest Florida coast during the early morning hours on Tuesday.  Increasing southwesterly wind shear aloft in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will prevent rapid strengthening tonight before landfall despite the very warm waters that are fueling Fay.  Hurricane force wind gusts should be confined to the barrier islands and the immediate southwest Florida coast for a brief period of time early on Tuesday.  However, sustained tropical storm force winds will likely spread over much of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday as Fay moves inland. 

The southwesterly wind shear aloft that will prevent rapid strengthening will also contribute to an increasing tornado threat tonight and throughout the day on Tuesday in the Florida peninsula.  A tornado watch remains in effect for most of south Florida and the Keys through 11 PM tonight.  Additional tornado watches for south, central, and northeast Florida are anticipated later tonight and especially on Tuesday.   

Steering currents aloft will weaken towards midweek as the persistent upper level trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States lifts out of the region. This will cause Fay's remnant circulation to decelerate over northeast Florida on Wednesday and the computer model guidance suggests a variety of possibilities later this week.  The slow movement of Fay later this week could increase the flood threat, particularly in urban areas of central and northeast Florida.  Rainfall totals are currently forecast in the 4-8 inch range for the peninsula and northeast Florida.  Heavy downpours could continue for much of the week in central and northeast Florida depending on where Fay stalls out.  

A hurricane warning remains posted for the southwest Florida coast from Anna Maria Island (Manatee County) southward to Flamingo (mainland Monroe County).  Hurricane watches have been discontinued for the Florida Keys, but tropical storm warnings will remain in effect tonight.  Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the Atlantic coast to Flagler Beach, with a tropical storm watch north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. 

Thunderstorms surrounding a tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean have increased today.  A weak low pressure center within this disturbance is currently located about 750 miles to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, or more than 3,200 miles to the east-southeast of Miami. This disturbance has the potential to slowly develop this week as it moves on a west-northwesterly course around 15 mph towards the central Atlantic Ocean

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Tropical Storm FAY Situation Page...

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Radar Page - Our original Regular Updated LIVE Radar Map Links...

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Severe Weather Map Link . . . .

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TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL & THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

AREAS AFFECTED.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FL. OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA. ORANGE. LAKE. SEMINOLE. 

THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES. MARTIN. SAINT LUCIE. INDIAN RIVER. BREVARD. & VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS. FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH & OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

 WATCHES/WARNINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FL. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FL. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. 

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN. SAINT LUCIE. AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. THIS WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FL LATER TONIGHT.

STORM INFORMATION.

AT 500 PM EDT. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH. LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST FL. THIS IS ABOUT 270 MILES SO. OF ORLANDO FL.

 FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NO. WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FL ON TUESDAY.

 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT & TUESDAY.& FAY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL.

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This graphic was delivered at 2 PM Monday afternoon.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 837 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
 
IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES
 
IN SOUTH FLORIDA
 
BROWARD               COLLIER               GLADES               
HENDRY                MAINLAND MONROE       MIAMI-DADE           
PALM BEACH            
 
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FL N ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY.  
A FEW CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW PERSISTENT ROTATION OFFSHORE SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF 
TORNADOES IS INCREASING.
 
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THESE AREAS.
 
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE 
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND 
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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This graphic was delivered at 8 AM Monday morning. Sustained winds have increased by 10 mph.

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This graphic was delivered at 5 AM Monday morning:

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At 8 PM EDT Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located along the southern Cuban coastline about 200 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, or about 265 miles south-southeast of Key West.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, and Fay has slowed down this evening, moving towards the west-northwest around 10 mph.  The Hurricane Watch was extended northward along Florida's west coast to Tarpon Springs (Pinellas County) earlier this afternoon.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the entire stretch of the Keys and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains posted from Jupiter Inlet (Palm Beach County) southward to Ocean Reef as well as Lake Okeechobee.  In addition, Inland Hurricane Wind Watches and Inland Tropical Storm Wind Watches are in effect for interior portions of Central and South Florida.

 Fay's interaction with the Cuban terrain throughout the day has precluded any substantial organization and strengthening.  The official forecast brings the center of Fay across west-central Cuba overnight tonight and into the Florida Straits or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by midday Monday, which is when sustained tropical storm conditions are expected to begin impacting the Florida Keys.  Fay is expected to stay over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for about 24-36 hours, and this should allow for Fay to intensify to near hurricane strength while impacting the lower and middle Keys.  The official forecast track has once again shifted back toward the west, bringing Fay ashore along the West Central Florida coast or Nature Coast as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday.  Uncertainty continues to persist in both the track and intensity forecast as noted by the spread in the computer model guidance.  Despite this, the probability of hurricane force winds are equal from the southwest coast of Florida northward into the Big Bend (5-20 percent), with a 50-70 percent chance of tropical storm force winds throughout the peninsula over the next 5 days.  If the official forecast verifies, storm surge along portions of Florida's southwest coast could exceed 5-7 feet, particularly in Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties.  Storm surge forecasts are highly dependent upon Fay's size, exact track, and intensity.  Any slight shift in direction toward the peninsula coast will yield a higher storm surge value.

 Wind shear remains strong across the northern Gulf of Mexico in association with a lingering frontal boundary and an upper level trough of low pressure.  This scenario will likely increase the tornado threat Monday through Wednesday for most of the Florida peninsula and Keys as Fay moves into the Gulf of Mexico.  Tornadoes that are spawned by tropical storms and hurricanes can occur far away from the cyclone's center, so expect tornado watches for a large portion of the Florida peninsula during Fay's impact.  Although Fay is forecast to strengthen, the wind shear over the northern Gulf may prevent Fay from strengthening rapidly.

 Most of the computer model guidance and the official forecast indicate that Fay will move through the eastern Gulf with a forward speed of around 10 mph.  This will likely result in widespread 4-8 inch rainfall totals for the Keys and most of the peninsula.  Any deceleration would increase these rainfall amounts and create the potential for widespread flooding.

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As of 5:00 PM Sunday night, TS Fay has moved slightly west.  This puts Okeechobee on the edge of the Error Cone.  This also increases the probability of tornado activity in our area.

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At 11 AM EDT Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located along the southern Cuban coastline about 75 miles to the southwest of Camaguey, Cuba, or about 350 miles to the southeast of Key West.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, and Fay is moving towards the west-northwest around 13 mph. Hurricane watches have been extended northward along Florida's west coast to Anna Maria Island (Manatee County).  A hurricane watch remains in effect for the entire stretch of the Keys and a tropical storm warning is now in place from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.  A tropical storm watch remains posted from Jupiter Inlet (Palm Beach County) southward to Ocean Reef as well as Lake Okeechobee.   

Fay's interaction with the eastern Cuban land mass has prevented significant strengthening.  The official forecast brings the center of Fay across west-central Cuba tonight through Monday morning and into the Florida Straits or southeast Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon, which is when sustained tropical storm conditions will begin impacting the Florida Keys.  Fay is expected to stay over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for at least 24 hours, and this should allow for Fay to intensify to near hurricane status while impacting the lower and middle Keys.  The official forecast brings Fay ashore along the west central or southwest Florida coast at Category 1 hurricane strength on Tuesday.  Uncertainty persists in both the track and intensity forecast as noted by the split in the computer model guidance.  If the official forecast verifies, storm surge along portions of Florida's southwest coast could exceed 5-7 feet, particularly in Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties.  Storm surge forecasts are highly dependent upon Fay's size, exact track, and intensity. 

Wind shear remains strong across the northern Gulf of Mexico in association with a lingering frontal boundary and upper level trough of low pressure.  This scenario could increase the tornado threat for most of the Florida peninsula and Keys as Fay moves into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday night and Tuesday.  Tornadoes that are spawned by tropical storms and hurricanes can occur far away from the cyclone's center, so expect tornado watches for a large portion of the Florida peninsula during Fay's impact.  The wind shear over the northern Gulf may prevent Fay from rapidly strengthening in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Most of the computer model guidance and the official forecast indicates that Fay will move across the peninsula with a forward speed around 10 mph.  This will likely result in widespread 4-8 inch rainfall totals for the Keys and most of the peninsula.  Any deceleration would increase these rainfall amounts and create the potential for widespread flooding.

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At 8 PM EDT Saturday, the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located about 60 miles to the southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  This position is also located about 540 miles to the southeast of Key West.  Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 45 mph, and Fay is moving westward around 14 mph.  Fay's circulation was weakened slightly by its journey over the mountains but is showing signs of re-organizing this evening over the warm waters of the Windward Passage between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. 

Fay will be passing near the southeastern Cuban coastline later tonight.  A persistent trough of low pressure that has been a semi-permanent feature across the southeastern United States this Summer will turn Fay on a northwestward and then northward course by Monday.  The point at which Fay turns will be critical to the cyclone’s intensity upon its approach to the Keys and the rest of the state.  If Fay maintains a more westward path during the next 24 hours, it will spend less time over the Cuban terrain and thus could be stronger than currently forecast when it impacts Florida.  The official forecast indicates that Fay will remain just below hurricane strength through Monday afternoon.  There is much uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

Based on the latest advisory, tropical storm force winds could reach the lower and middle Keys by noon on Monday, with deteriorating conditions spreading up the peninsula for the remainder of Monday and Tuesday.  The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts a 14% chance that Fay will reach Category 2 strength in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an 8% chance of Fay reaching Category 3 strength on Tuesday. Nearly the entire Florida peninsula falls within the 3-day average forecast error cone.  Hurricane or tropical storm watches will likely be posted for the Keys by Sunday morning, and these watches may include portions of the southeast and southwest Florida coasts later tomorrow morning.

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At 8 PM Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located over the eastern Dominican Republic about 35 miles to the west-northwest of Santo Domingo.  This position is also about 870 miles to the east-southeast of Key West.  Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 45 mph, and Fay is moving westward around 14 mph.  Satellite imagery this evening indicates that thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized around Fay’s surface circulation despite interaction with eastern Hispaniola.  However, Fay will be traveling over the very tall mountains in the central and western portions of the island during the next 12-18 hours.  The interaction with this terrain may weaken Fay and cause some erratic motion of the circulation.

 The official forecast brings Fay back over the warm waters of the Windward Passage in between western Haiti and eastern Cuba by Saturday afternoon or evening.  Fay is then forecast to take a west-northwest turn near the high terrain of eastern Cuba by late Saturday night and could spend an extended amount of time over eastern and central Cuba from Sunday through Monday morning.  Normally, a tropical cyclone that travels for an extended period over land will substantially weaken.  However, Fay has an almost ideal environment aloft that could keep the cyclone’s circulation in tact through its mountainous journey.  The track and intensity forecasts are very uncertain given these parameters. 

 Computer model guidance today has unanimously shifted westward with regards to Fay’s path during the early portions of next week.  This guidance suggests that Fay will gradually turn northward over central Cuba, with a potential impact to the Florida Keys and peninsula early next week.  The entire State of Florida is included in the average 5-day forecast error cone.  Any erratic motion of Fay’s center this weekend could drastically alter the track forecasts for early next week.  The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts a 29% probability that Fay will reach hurricane strength by Tuesday afternoon.

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TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008

500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008 

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON... 

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. 

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. 

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. 

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center

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The impressive tropical disturbance that crossed Puerto Rico last night is centered along the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic this afternoon, or about 900 miles to the southeast of Miami.  The broad center of this system continues to move westward around 15 mph.  This disturbance has had a difficult time developing a well-defined surface circulation, but Hurricane Hunters have recently measured winds near tropical storm force in the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) will likely disrupt this system’s developing circulation tonight and Saturday as this disturbance continues on a west or west-northwest trajectory.

The toll that the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba takes on this disturbance’s circulation will play a key part in future forecasts.  Hurricanes such as Jeanne (2004) were weakened by this terrain but maintained a circulation that flourished once the cyclone reached warm waters.  Weaker systems such as Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006) were substantially weakened and only slowly intensified after re-emerging over the ocean.  Computer model guidance suggests that this disturbance will remain over Hispaniola for nearly 24 hours before briefly moving over water before potentially encountering the eastern Cuban terrain tomorrow night and Sunday.  The well-developed outflow and hospitable conditions aloft accompanying this tropical disturbance may assist in its survival this weekend.

The computer model track guidance has dramatically shifted this afternoon in response to a more westward forward motion of the system today.  Expect continued shifts in this guidance during the weekend since these models are attempting to diagnose a well-defined circulation center that currently doesn’t exist.  However, there is an increased threat to the Keys and potentially the Gulf coast as long as this system continues moving westward.  We will continue to closely monitor these trends throughout the weekend in the event that some consistency in this model guidance develops. 

The timing of the anticipated northward turn has remained somewhat consistent during the past few days with a possible threat to south Florida and/or the Keys towards late Monday or Tuesday.  The potential for rapid intensification early next week still exists if the system remains in tact during this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center will update their tropical outlook at 8 PM: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Attached are the afternoon computer model track forecasts through the next 5 days.  Keep in mind that “XTRP” is not a model but simply an extrapolation based on the current motion of this disturbance.

      Emergency Management:  As a precaution all county and municipal department heads should ensure that their personnel are prepared for a possible activation next week.  Responders are urged to check their disaster supplies and verify their family disaster plans are current. OEM will continue to provide updates and anticipated actions as they become necessary.  At this time, no shelters are opened.  No roads are closed.

  

 

 

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